Modeling Disclaimer & Notes
Disclaimer and footnotes for the out-of-pocket costs (OOP) and healthcare savings account (HSA) investment modeling tool (“tool” or “model”).
This tool is designed to be informational and educational only. We believe our model is useful, unique, and directionally correct. “All models are wrong but some models are useful” as the the saying goes.
We do not guarantee that the outputs are accurate for any one individual. Your contributions, tax savings, and future account values will vary based on multiple factors, including health, personal finances, health insurance coverage, demographics, regulatory changes, and more. Calculations for investment growth assume contributions are made at the end of each year. All investments come with the potential risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Seek financial and/or tax advice if you have deeper questions.
The tool uses statistically significant factors around age and gender from three years of continuous single coverage participant level healthcare allowed claims data, trimmed for outliers. This includes 1,000 total single coverage lives under gold level (80% actuarial value) coverage and trended to 2021. Other plan designs (Silver or Bronze) in the model use recalibrated utilization curves and representative Silver (70% actuarial value) and Bronze (60% actuarial value) level plan designs to arrive at an estimate of OOP costs by utilization tiers.
“Low” utilization is the lowest 20% of annualized in-network OOP claimants over a three year period; “high” is the 95th percentile; “average” is the mean.
Long-term inflation is assumed to be 4.5%, as reflected in the steady-state long-term healthcare inflation rate for many actuarial analyses1UPS for example in its 2020 annual report states…”medical benefit costs were forecasted assuming an initial annual rate of increase of 6.5%, decreasing to 4.5% by the year 2022 and with consistent annual increases at that ultimate level thereafter.”. Modeled dollars accumulated in your HSA based on the future years are a real number, i.g., net of assumed healthcare inflation. Long-term growth in HSA dollars is defaulted to 2%, in line with the 1-2% increases historically seen.
Last updated September 10, 2021