In many ways, I'm a below average driver. I only drive about 4,000 miles a year so I don't get much practice. I use a blinker most of the time but I'm not always courteous. Sometimes I cut in at the last minute, which I recently read is actually good for traffic flows, even it … Continue reading Averages Over Time
Cadillac Consequences
Mothers and psychologists remind us that we have a built-in bias to do what's easiest or to follow the path of least resistance. Water and electricity are like this. We are naturally lazy so to stick to an exercise plan, it should be something we like, with shoes left by the bed, perhaps done with … Continue reading Cadillac Consequences
Averages are Overrated
I've always liked understanding the world through numbers, and markets are the beautiful impartial scorekeeper. When I was a teenager I used to compare the price of things to Wendy's cheeseburgers. "That's like 35 Jr. Bacon Cheeseburgers!" I would say in disbelief. When I was hungry I was more price sensitive of the ratio of … Continue reading Averages are Overrated
The $4,500 Deductible
$4,537 can buy a lot of Skittles*. Or it can buy you the average single deductible for an unsubsidized enrollee with healthcare coverage on the Affordable Care Act (ACA) exchanges. At 3.4x less, the $1,350 average deductible for the 152 million who get their insurance through an employer looks benevolent. In spite of having the word "affordable" … Continue reading The $4,500 Deductible
In Praise of the Six Page Narrative
Jeff Bezos of Amazon is famous for being customer-centric, so much so that Amazon's annual letters proudly say, "We seek to be Earth’s most customer-centric company." Shipping, easy returns, streaming, and Kindle are proof. "Free" 2-day shipping for Prime membership is a big part for me. So far this year I've ordered 54 packages, or … Continue reading In Praise of the Six Page Narrative
The Case For Healthcare and Financial Literacy
12% and 33%. According to a 2015 study in the Journal of the American Medical Association, only 12% of adults have a proficient state of healthcare literacy. That's why goals to eliminate waste in the US healthcare system, help people to be better consumers, and shop for care, need to start with the front door, … Continue reading The Case For Healthcare and Financial Literacy
What is Medical Price Transparency Worth?
Shopping for medical care, like reducing food waste, or understanding the adage that half of advertising is wasted*, is an exercise that first starts with disbelief (and even outrage), but a closer look keeps you grounded in reality. Simple observations are cheap. Some key findings and structural limits can guide us through why price transparency … Continue reading What is Medical Price Transparency Worth?
On Case Studies
I have a case study of a perfect stock trade where I made 3x my money in three years. It had it all: Mr. Market offered a discount relative to growth and earnings power. I had an analytical edge, plus the temperament of a monk. It was also a micro-cap company where the markets are … Continue reading On Case Studies
Average vs. Median
There is an oft-cited study from Fidelity on healthcare savings needed in retirement for the average couple: $275,000 in today's dollars. This assumes the actuarial tables grant you both around 20 years of runway, you have original Medicare, and you retiree at 65. That comes to $1,100 per month per couple (here I assume the … Continue reading Average vs. Median
Of Synergies and Spreadsheets
When buying anything, whether it's a company choosing a vendor, a suburban soccer mom considering solar panels on a home, investing in stocks, or as a CEO considering an acquisition, the big and easy decisions are what you should focus on, not the slick presentations or the fancy math (or total lack of numbers). Is … Continue reading Of Synergies and Spreadsheets
